The Oscars: Chronicle of a Taste Foretold
In this article, Guergana Guintcheva, Professor at EDHEC and Director of the Master Business Management programme, asks: do the Oscar choices reflect the public's taste in the box office? What criteria guide the choice of nominations and how are they reflected in popular taste? The 96th ceremony (10 March 2025) is an opportunity to examine trends... and perhaps anticipate the year's successes.
Since 1929, the Oscars have every year recognized the talents of the global film industry with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honouring cinematic achievements in the United States and beyond.
Award shows like the Oscars, the Golden Globes, the Césars, the Berlinale, the Cannes Film Festival, and the Venice Film Festival legitimize a certain taste—one shaped by industry experts—while influencing both critics and the public. By designating the films that are “must-see,” these awards impact the reception of cinematic works.
But do the Oscars' selections reflect public taste as seen at the box office? What criteria guide the nominations, and how do they compare to popular preferences? The 96th ceremony this year will offer an opportunity to analyse the trends highlighted by the nominations and perhaps anticipate the year's major successes.
Film Genres at the Heart of Nomination Strategies
The 2024 Oscar nominations reveal a clear professional preference for the drama genre, which once again dominates the selections in the Best Picture category. Among the ten nominated films, five are dramas—A Perfect Stranger, Conclave, Nickel Boys, The Brutalist, and I Am Still Here. The selection also includes two blockbusters (Dune: Part Two and Wicked), two romantic comedies (Anora, Emilia Pérez), and one horror film (The Substance).
This preference among Academy voters for drama can be contrasted with its box office performance. In the United States and Canada, (1) drama ranks only fourth, making up 10.1% of revenue, behind action films (34%), adventure films (20.3%), and comedy (12.6%). However, this pattern is not universal: in China, (2) drama is the most profitable genre, accounting for 54% of box office revenue in 2023, followed by comedy at 26%.
Are Genre Preferences Culturally Driven?
Studies indicate that public taste varies by cultural context.
In the United States, (3) 64% of moviegoers prefer comedies, followed closely by dramas at 54%. The United Kingdom (4) shows a similar pattern, with both genres reaching 61%. In contrast, in China, (5) drama is the dominant preference at 65%, ahead of comedy (54%). Finland (6) stands out for its enthusiasm for documentaries (65%), followed by comedies (62%) and dramas (58%). In France, (7) 63% of viewers favour comedies, while only 36% prefer dramas.
These disparities illustrate that while professional taste remains relatively stable, popular preferences are shaped by cultural sensibilities. However, two genres consistently top the charts: comedy and drama.
Why Are Drama and Comedy So Popular with Audiences?
Comedy and drama stand out as the most preferred genres, but for different reasons.
Comedies are widely appreciated for providing a light-hearted and enjoyable experience, thanks to their ability to make audiences laugh and promote well-being. Laughter also has an important social function—it fosters connections among viewers and enhances the pleasure of watching movies in groups (8) (9).
Dramas, on the other hand, are valued for their ability to evoke deep, sometimes contradictory emotions. Unlike genres that provide more linear and predictable experiences, such as comedy or action films, dramas elicit intense feelings like melancholy and romanticism. Although sadness is a dominant emotion in drama, paradoxically, it contributes to audience satisfaction by delivering a cathartic cinematic experience (10).
Viewers enjoy crying at the movies—sadness, especially in drama, enhances satisfaction by providing an intense aesthetic and emotional experience, catharsis, and a deep emotional connection to the characters and story. In contrast, low-intensity emotions, such as calmness, are perceived negatively in cinema because they are associated with a lack of stimulation (11).
While film genres strongly influence audience reception, they do not guarantee success on their own.
Genre Alone Does Not Explain a Film’s Success
Storytelling plays a crucial role in audience engagement and critical recognition. Aware of this, the Oscars have a specific category for Best Adapted Screenplay, highlighting the significance of narrative structure, particularly when transitioning from one medium to another.
However, once again, the Academy shows a strong preference for drama. In this year’s Best Adapted Screenplay category, four out of five nominated films are dramas (A Perfect Stranger, Conclave, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing), with only one romantic comedy (Emilia Pérez).
A 2023 study (12) found that adaptations—especially in drama—tend to have higher budgets (+60.8% compared to original works) and are more likely to win awards. Studios favour adaptations because they are also more profitable: on average, they generate 45.6% more box office revenue than original films. However, adaptation remains a risky strategy.
A 2025 study (13) reveals that the order of consumption (book → film or film → book) influences audience satisfaction and perception of added value. When a film is watched after reading the book, a faithful adaptation enhances the experience by reconnecting the two mediums and benefiting from cinema’s immersive power (visuals and sound). However, audience expectations shaped by the book as a reference point make it harder for the film adaptation to meet satisfaction. Conversely, when viewers watch the film first, it becomes the reference, and an overly faithful adaptation of the book diminishes interest in reading, creating a saturation effect.
Expertise also plays a role: frequent readers have higher expectations and view the film as an extension of the book, while less frequent readers often see the movie as a substitute for reading. These findings indicate that film adaptations function as brand extensions, where alignment with the source material is essential to audience satisfaction. They also have strategic implications for the film industry, which must target a broader audience beyond just the book’s readers to maximize an adaptation’s success.
While the Oscars shape a certain cinematic taste, the general public follows its own preferences, revealing a divergence in tastes and multiple legitimate aesthetics in cinema.
References
(1) Movie genre distribution in the United States and Canada from 2010 to 2025, by box office market share - https://www.statista.com/statistics/668712/movie-genres-in-north-america-by-average-box-office-revenue/
(2) Share of box office revenue in China in 2024, by selected genre - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237229/china-box-office-revenue-share-genre/
(3) Preferred films and shows by genre in the U.S. - https://www.statista.com/forecasts/997166/preferred-films-and-shows-by-genre-in-the-us
(4) Preferred films and shows by genre in the UK - https://www.statista.com/forecasts/997839/preferred-films-and-shows-by-genre-in-the-uk
(5) Preferred films and shows by genre in China - https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1348293/preferred-films-and-shows-by-genre-in-china
(6) Preferred films and shows by genre in Finland - https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1188096/preferred-films-and-shows-by-genre-in-finland
(7) Preferred films and shows by genre in France - https://www.statista.com/forecasts/998300/preferred-films-and-shows-by-genre-in-france
(8) Stora-Sandor, J. (2005) . Rire ensemble : la comédie et son public. Revue de psychothérapie psychanalytique de groupe, n° 44(1), 15-26. https://doi.org/10.3917/rppg.044.0015
(9) Le rire nerveux et les larmes de joie : expressions émotionnelles paradoxales - https://www.psychologie-positive.com/le-rire-nerveux-et-les-larmes-de-joie-expressions-emotionnelles-paradoxales/
(10) Nikolic, D., Kostic-Stankovic, M., & Jeremic, V. (2022). Market Segmentation in the Film Industry Based on Genre Preference: the Case of Millennials. Engineering Economics, 33(2), 215–228. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.33.2.30616
(11) Using Affect–Expectations Theory to Explain the Direction of the Impacts of Experiential Emotions on Satisfaction. Guergana Guintcheva, Philippe Aurier - https://www.academia.edu/8433549/Using_Affect_Expectations_Theory_to_Explain_the_Direction_of_the_Impacts_of_Experiential_Emotions_on_Satisfaction
(12) Fondevila-Gascón, J.-F., Berbel-Giménez, G., & Blanco, C. (2023). Adaptations versus original film premieres trends in broadband society: a comparative analysis. Profesional De La información, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.3145/epi.2023.mar.14
(13) Order of Re-Consumption of Partially Similar Objects in Consumers’ Hedonic Experiences: The Case of Book-to-Film Adaptations - https://boutique.gestiondesarts.hec.ca/en/product/order-of-re-consumption-of-partially-similar-objects-in-consumers-hedonic-experiences-the-case-of-book-to-film-adaptations/